Well, The Donald and Hillary win big in New York and they should be the Nominees, but, not so fast. Bernie cannot win, but he is staying in and that will give him a whole lot of power at the Convention. This will continue to push her further to the left, something she dreads. Hillary was basically campaigning as a continuation of the Obama Presidency. Bernie has killed that plan. He has brought up issue after issue that have made her change her stance and has people thinking, sort of. Now polls show that Democrats want a very left wing candidate.
That is not good for Hillary. Traditionally, Candidates campaign toward the fringe and move to the middle because they know that most Americans are really pretty moderate. Bernie will have enough pull to get the Party platform moved to a position that will make Obama look like William F. Buckley and I cannot see how Hillary can maneuver around that. Of course, if elected, she will pay no attention to any of that, but it may make her election a bit problematic.
There is one way Sanders can still get the nomination. There is still a chance Hillary may be indicted over the whole email mess. I think that is unlikely but it would be hilarious to see the Democratic Party stuck with a Candidate for President who was under indictment.
The Republicans are in a mess and it could not happen to a more deserving bunch of folks. Trump still has a fair shot at wrapping up a first ballot nomination and that in itself is a huge issue for Party leaders, but, if Trump fails at that, a distinct possibility, then all hell will break loose at their Convention. Ted Cruz, at that point, would start trying to pressure the delegates, who at that point would be free to vote for anyone, to side with him. The Nation will witness politics at its sleaziest. All sides will resort to any steps possible to get those votes. Ted's problem is that he is about a likeable as a wolverine. However, most of the Party's leaders dislike The Donald at least as much.
What of Kasich? Good question. He seems a likeable and basically honest guy and, by most accounts has been a decent Governor. More to the point, polls show repeatedly that he is the one Republican candidate that can beat Hillary. Yet, for reasons that I just cannot figure, he cannot win Primaries. Still, if the Convention gets to a 3rd vote, he may be the man. That will cause all those folks who voted for Trump and Cruz to grow apoplectic and the Party will fall to bits. In short, if the Republicans finally settle for the one man who might win in November, he will likely not get the support of his own party and will likely not win. Isn't this fun. I have never, in all my many years of watching politics seen anything like this mess..
But wait, it might get better. If Kasich cannot win on the 3rd or 4th ballot, there are others standing by. Do not forget Little Marco who still has a few votes. Then, if all else fails, we have Jeb Bush who might step forward and offer his services as a compromise candidate. Also, there is Paul Ryan. Yes, I know, he said that he absolutely would not take the job. That is what he said about becoming Speaker of the House, right before he took the job.
On top of all of that, there is still a chance that someone, if they get angry enough at the way the Conventions go, might start a 3rd Party run. With tempers as high as they have been recently, I almost expect that. Then the real fun begins because, if whoever it is can get enough support to keep anyone from getting a majority in the General Election, the entire mess goes to the House of Representatives, where they will pick a President and God only knows who that might be.
Stay tuned, folks. Things will just get funnier.
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